Coop Scoop: The Day After

A bullet has been dodged. The battle continues.

November 9, 2022

By Marc Cooper

It looks like the early picture of how the midterms were panning out has held. 

We are all swamped now with data, numbers, spin and emotions.  So, I will make this very short and succinct as the reader can fill in the gaps as the counting continues.

But here’s the top line conclusions regarding the state of play:

1. The midterms were a major failure of MAGA strategy and it constitutes a modest but important win for Democrats and also for anti-Trump and pro-democracy forces outside of the party.

2 . When everything is counted, the one party or the other will constitute a House majority.  Republicans have the advantage but if victorious they will have a vary narrow margin.  The more narrow, the more difficult for McCarthy to lead the conference.  Having a numerical majority is not the same as having a stable governing majority.

3. The Senate will remain under Democratic control according to my calculations.  I might be wrong but I don’t think so,  Democrats are on track to win the Senate races in Arizona and Nevada.  That would add up to 50 Democratic senators.  The December run-off between Warnock and Walker would offer the Dems a chance to increase their senate seats to 51. And Warnock will be the easy favorite.

4. Donald Trump is the big loser. Exit polls show that two/thirds of Americans don’t want Trump to run in 2024.  It is now clear to all, including Republicans, that Trump is now a drag on the party, Trump, meanwhile, seems to be plowing ahead with an announcement to run on November 15…or before.

Here's the problem for Republicans:  They have allowed Trump to erase all safety measures, guard rails and non-MAGA infrastructure within the party.  In short, there is NO committee of Republican Wise Men who can have a private talk with Trump and convince him to stand down. If Mitch were to lead a delegation to the White House with this message, Trump would \have the Marine guards open fire.

While it seems an uphill task for Trump to win another general election, he would still have support of a large swath of his base that would push him to run. And as of today, he’s running,

Question: Does DeSantis want to wait till 2028 when the seat will be open and Trump will be dead or exhausted?  Maybe. Maybe not.

Democrats and other anti-Trump and pro-democracy forces do not have the luxury of complacency.  We all dodged a bullet last night, but let’s not understate the importance and danger of MAGA taking control of even one chamber of congress. 

The incoming class of MAGA’S are completely crazy and are stuck in a permanent loop of election denial and artificial grievance.  These are folks who plotted and supported a movement to deny Biden his democratically elected office and who worked hard to block the peaceful transfer of power.  They might be in Congress, but they have no attachment to the constitution or to democratic rule.  They will be more than ready this coming year to delay, disrupt, impeach, investigate and, ultimately, subvert. Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene and other werewolves will have augmented influence on the GOP leadership.

The run-up to 2024 will be the crucial battle to retain our democracy. Legislation will be impossible in a mixed government.  And that means that those who want to affirm and nurture democracy and social change will have to roll up their sleeves and do a lot of work at the community level.  Outsourcing anti-fascism to the Democratic Party alone does not seem a great idea,

See you in a few days.

P.S. Will DOJ now indict Trump before he announces?