Coop Scoop: State of Play 55 Days Out

No Red Wave. No Blue Wave. Maybe the Fireworks are being saved for 2023

Sep 15

September 15, 2022

By Marc Cooper

[Please note: changes are coming to the Coop Scoop. Read about them at the bottom of this piece.]

When the history of this period of politics is ever written, it seems clear that Sam Alito, Justice Clarence Thomas and, now, Senator Lindsay Graham will be recognized as the trio that heroically saved American Democracy when it was most at peril.

Unwittingly, of course.

Just a few months ago, the insurrectionary Republican Party was well on its way to sweeping the November midterms and perhaps constructing the first stage of an Authoritarian America as abig Red Wave inundated the country.

As the Republicans advanced, the Democrats seemed paralyzed much like deer in the headlights. Record number of Democratic House members were fleeing toward retirement. Biden could not pass wind, let alone any legislation.

But those Republican expectations of beginning the construction of an American Hungary have now been tempered by the sudden, unexpected and unanticipated recovery of these same Democrats.

That revival owes directly to the over-reach by the Christian nationalist majority on the Supreme Court when they abolished Roe. American women, of all parties, think they should be able to live their lives without Ted Cruz or Lindsay Graham in their bedrooms.

You know the rest. Democratic victories in numerous special elections. The Kansas referendum. The surprise turnaround by Joe Manchin allowing Democrats to put at least some (very important) climate legislation on the scoreboard. The troublesome polls for various Republican werewolf senate and gubernatorial candidates. Projections that the Senate will be held by Democrats and that their losses in the house will be minor and not severe. And even some projections, or at least wish casting, that Democrats will also hold the house.

All of this good news. But news that carries the asterisk that the election is still 50-odd days away and that summer polling tends to be less than precise.

Trump continues in sharp decline, even as his hold on the rump Republicans is as tight as ever. That’s bad news for the GOP who was mightily hoping he would lay low during the campaign to not make himself a Democratic target. The GOP wanted a clean midterm referendum on the Biden Administration.

Instead, we are watching the run up to a referendum on abortion – one that the GOP is on the wrong side of. And as Trump continues to insert himself in the news, with his preposterous claim of ownership of the secret documents and, this week, with his open identification with QAnon, the Republican cause further falters.

As it dawned on some Republicans that the abortion ruling was killing them, even some of the most extreme MAGA candidates began scrubbing their maximalist anti-abortion language from their web sites and stump speeches.

Then enter the Clown Laureate of the United States Senate, one Lindsay Graham who had adamantly supported the SCOTUS ruling saying it would return the abortion issue to where it belonged i.e. the states.

That was in June. Now it’s September. And Graham has changed his mind and has introduced a bill that would ban all abortions nationally after 15 weeks. This is the last thing in the world “establishment” Republicans, like Mitch McConnell, wanted. That’s because McConnell wants to recover control of the Senate while Graham wants only to get re-elected.

In less than 24 hours, Lindsay started starring in various Democratic campaign commercials. Democrats could not have dreamed that Graham would give them such a gift this late in the game. But Lindsay is always full of ………surprises.

I know as little or as much as anybody when it comes to how the midterms will shake out. I would say that at this moment, absolutely nothing is guaranteed except a high turnout. As of today, it looks like the Democrats do have a good chance of keeping the senate. Though, I am concerned about the Georgia Republican senatorial candidate Herschel Walker who might now be leading incumbent Warnock. This is a candidate every bit as crazy as Trump, and he’s even dumber. And yet…

We’ll see.

As to the House, it would be a literal miracle if the Democrats hold it. And it would be a catastrophic and historic defeat for the GOP. Don’t hold your breath.

Here are my brief takeaways from the current state of play:

1. The Red Wave is highly unlikely but not impossible.

2. Democrats will likely hold the Senate but will top out at 51 seats. Still a chance they can lose it.

3. House losses for Democrats will be in the range of 12-15 seats, barring a “miracle.”

Losing less than 20 is a lot different than losing more. It means recovery in the next cycle is likely instead of out of reach. Further, a thin Republican majority will make it difficult for Kevin McCarthy to become speaker and the post might go instead to a Super Maga like Jim Jordan. And that, in turn, would please the Democrats as Jordan guarantees ridiculous level foolishness that would be a wonderful foil.

It's also evident that the DOJ is now playing hardball with Donald Trump and the indictment of many of his cronies can now be counted on. And it sure looks like Justice is also bearing down on the Don himself. And on Bannon who has been re-indicted by the Feds. And Lindell, and Eastman and Giuliani, and other Trump toadies who have had their phones snatched by the FBI and who have been given appointments with the Grand Jury.

Merrick Garland waited for months before he approved the search and seizure at Mar-A-Lago. He knew that going ahead with it was crossing the Rubicon and there was no turning back. If shoot at the King, you must kill him.

Mostly what I gather from the present is that 2023 is going to be quite a volatile and frenetic year. The campaign wil be full blast on both sides. The Jan6 final report will be out. There will be numerous Jan6 trials. And, of course, there will be a cloudburst of indictments – for sure—and God Knows what kind of reaction.

That’s where the big story is gonna be. Not 2022. Not even 2024. But 2023. ++_

First of all, a welcome to new subscribers and readers who have joined us via the Substack app!

During the week of October 15, a month from now, the format of Coop Scoop will be changed and some of the content will be put behind a paywall.

I have tried to keep the entire contents free for all but that is turning out to not be viable.

I am quite pleased that we have grown to more than 2000 followers. But too small a percentage are paid subscribers.

The year ahead of us is going to be consequential. 2023 could easily determine the course of the country for decades to come.

I want to have the resources available to properly cover what is coming.

Indeed, I would like to spend a week reporting only for Coop Scoop from Georgia and maybe Arizona for obvious reasons.

That costs money. Period.

When the paywall is instituted a month from now free subscribers will be retained with pleasure. But extra content will be provided for paid subscribers and donors.

Those will include additional text posts. Six Ask Me Anything zoom meet ups a year. And subscription to a podcast that I want to do but that requires more funding.

I suggest you get ahead of the curve and subscribe now.

Coop Scoop Sept 14

September 15, 2022

By Marc Cooper