Coop Scoop Special Election Edition #11: It's All About the Women, Stupid

No Question that Trump is Sweating it Out Because of a Possible Tsunami of Women Voters

November 4, 2024

I’ll make this point short and sweet. The “herding” of the tied polls is practically impossible mathematically. They cannot and do not predict the immediate future. And the odds of so many polls coming up as tied are truly astronomical, or better, metaphysical. Mary L. Trump called out the two most prominent pollsters for being timid. Nate Silver of 538. And Nate Cohn of the NYTimes.

In response to Selzer’s poll, Nate Silver, another pollster, said that it was “incredibly gutsy to release this poll.” Cohn recently admitted that “it is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory.”

“When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it,” Cohn wrote. “And frankly, I share that feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.”

These comments are staggering: Cohn and Silver see a close race because they want to see a close race.

This morning, The New York Times ceded the most valuable real estate on its front page to Nate Cohn, and ran his piece with this headline:

“Some Surprises in Last Battleground Polls, but Still a Deadlock”I, for one, have no problem predicting that the Harris ground game, the Trump meltdowns, the abortion issue, and the fear of pollsters to break from the pack, all add up to a Harris victory. If I’m wrong, sue me. It will be more productive than continuing to wet your bed and bite your nails. Anyway, you should be out phone banking Monday or you lose your right to complain afterward.

There is, however, one poll, which happens to be the most respected, meticulous poll in the country, the Iowa Poll conducted by Ann Selzer. Every journalist like yours truly that has covered several caucuses and elections in Iowa know her excellent track record. Fortune magazine goes as far as calling the Selzer poll an “oracle.” And it exploded late Sunday night like a tactical nuke.

Iowa was once a swing state. Obama won it, but since then it has turned deep red — supposedly. But the final Iowa Poll gives Harris a 47-44 lead over Trump. And leading the charge are voters over 65, especially the older women who are polling 2 to 1 against Trump. And while Trump is winning the male vote, he’s losing men over 65 by about 2 points.

The gender gap is wider than the Grand Canyon. And independents in Iowa who have in the last two cycles broken for Trump are now moving to Harris. I recommend you read the full breakdown of the poll here. It is packed with the most reliable of data. This poll might be an aberration or it might be very specific to Iowa but it just as well might be a political death sentence for Trump if similar patterns emerge nationwide.

Selzer was just on TV saying” Something is happening here.”

Here’s a key excerpt from the Des Moines Register from the link above:

“In 2020, the Register’s Iowa Poll showed that Biden and Trump were tied among all likely voters in September. But the final poll before Election Day that year showed independents breaking for Trump, and he ultimately won by 8 percentage points over Biden.  

This year, independents appear to be turning the other way toward Harris — a move fueled by a growing support among independent women.  

Independent likely voters, who have supported Trump in every other Iowa Poll this year, now favor Harris, 46% to 39%.  

Now, independent women choose Harris over Trump 57% to 29%. That’s up from September, when independent women gave her just a 5-point lead, 40% to 35%.  

Independent men still favor Trump 47% to 37% — numbers that are largely unchanged from September, when independent men supported him 46% to 33%.   

Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September. (my emphasis).

But Trump’s lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%). “

Again, this is one poll in one state but it’s the most respected one out there. I am not getting carried away —completely—- by it, but it is consistent with early voting that is at record levels and in which women are the majority in every case. And remember, those over 65 and especially 70, were Baby Boomers and grew up in the radical 60’s.

We might be well looking at an election that is very different than the picture painted by the barrage of polls, many of them manufactured, over the last few months. The Democratic map threatens to expand past the half dozen swing states and if that is the case, it’s Adios, Mr. Trump.

That same Mr. Trump is reacting angrily to the Iowa Poll and yesterday actually “joked” about shooting reporters. And he’s been campaigning in North Carolina which almost always votes red. JD Vance was in New Hampshire this weekend, not really a swing state. Trump is also escalating his rhetoric about the election being rigged and voting being fraudulent. The words of a guy who thinks he’s losing and not exactly an impressive campaign closing.

The real unknown in this election is the closed black box of the overall women’s vote. There’s plenty of evidence that the abortion issue not only has not faded but is once again polling along with “the economy” as a top issue among women voters. And Trump’s vow “to protect women whether they like it or not” has had an impact like Hitler’s Bar Mitzvah. His campaign’s appeal to caveman “masculinity” might drag out a few incels but is likely to fire up a lot more women. That the women’s vote is going to be dramatic we know. We can assume that vote will prevail in the half-dozen states where overturning abortion bans are on the ballot, especially in the crucial swing state of Arizona. We just won’t know till Tuesday and the following days if the women’s vote is a ripple, a wave or a veritable tsunami that will cleanse us of the women-hating gargoyles Trump and Vance and their knuckle-dragging supporters.

For one of the best detailed breakdowns of how women can and will take down Trump, I turn proudly to my former student going back almost 20 years, journalist and author, Amanda Becker. Writing for the woman-centric The 19th, Becker says the abortion issue could and probably will be decisive. Read the entire piece please.

She quotes a 61 year old nurse midwife, Kathy Bedikian, who lives in Michigan:

Though Bedikian knows that abortion access is protected in Michigan, for now, she also knows from working in obstetrics and gynecology that there are many ways for a president to cut off access to abortion nationwide. She knows that Michigan is an important battleground state, so she and her daughters are all in on Harris’ candidacy. “I’m terrified,” Bedikian told The 19th, ticking off abortion, the economy and gun violence as her top concerns, “about what is going to happen to women if Donald Trump is elected.”

Bedikian is among the 24 percent of women voters who cite abortion as the single issue that is most important to their vote, compared with just 6 percent of men, according to New York Times/Siena College polling from late October. For women, abortion is now the most important issue, tied with the economy. Six in 10 trust Harris more than Trump on abortion, and a smaller percentage of women trust Trump on the issue less than any other. That includes the economy and immigration, on which the former president has been heavily relying as a motivator, including with women, as he closes out his campaign. 

“I’ll tell you what I’m not worried about: immigration,” Bedikian added.

Before we move on, I am also reading that the vaunted Black vote that so many pundits claimed Trump was chipping away at looks like another misreading. He’s currently got 9% of the Black vote, 2 points less than in 2020.

Ok. That’s as far as I am going to go today. You will hear from me again late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning,

As an antidote to what will be the likely false claims of victory by Trump Tuesday eve before all the vote’s are counted, I offer this breakdown of how to watch the returns without freaking out from Harris campaign strategist Jen O’Malley Dillon.

What to Expect on Election Night

“Every state counts votes differently. Some wait until polls close, some start counting as soon as voters submit their ballot. That means that returns are going to come in for different states at different times. This is roughly what we expect to see:”

“It will take a long time to count every single vote, and we can’t place too much stock in the early returns. The tally in certain states is going to change a lot as additional ballots are counted. For example, some states that count absentee ballots first may start off blue and shift to red as time goes on. Those would be your Michigans and Pennsylvanias.”

“On the other hand, there are states like North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada where we may see Republicans leading from the beginning and then those states may shift to blue as urban areas come in and more late early vote and vote-by-mail is counted.”

“We may not know the results of this election for several days. But we must stay calm and confident during that period of time. We all have a role to play to ensure that our friends, family, and neighbors trust our electoral process.”

If you are a progressive Democrat or an unaffiliated progressive and you think Harris is too vague or too centrist, I really don’t care and neither should you. We can take up the policy fights after she wins and we have some political breathing room to organize. If you withhold your vote, you will own the consequences.

No retreat. No surrender. Let’s kick these bums off the political stage.++

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