Coop Scoop: A Man of Conviction

Did Trump Lose the Election in the Stormy Trial?

May 31-June 1, 2024

By Marc Cooper

What a great job the media/pundit complex did on the Trump Manhattan trial, no? Remember what we were told the last 6 months. The case is not important.  Won’t show up on the radar.  Makes no difference.  Poorly charged and too complex for the jury to get to a felony. Michael Cohen’s lies will sink the case. And this could not possibly have any effect on the election.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.  Former President Donald J Trum has been convicted on all 34 counts after a mere a day and change of jury deliberation. And if you, like me, have ever spent as much as one day on trial, it is a devastating experience to get slammed with this sort of conviction.

The trial has made big news for weeks and if there are millions of Americans who paid no attention there were just as many or more who did. Those who did saw a oafish, shrinking, blubbery crook sitting and basically sleeping through his trial, showing disdain for the judge, the jury, and for the rule of law itself.  They saw a totally self-consumed, imbecilic criminal who cut every corner possible to get himself elected in 2016 and who then spent the next 8 years lying about the whole incident –one he laughably claimed never happened.

Sorry to dissent but I found the trial to be extremely important.  It further exposed Donald J. Trump as the useless but conniving and ultimately dangerous lump of barely sentient flab and all in the middle of a presidential campaign.

The public reaction is going to be muted for the most part but it still means that this is more like a torpedo striking the aft of Trump’s campaign battleship than a sea gull dropping a load on his head.  We are not going to see a gigantic switch in the polls. The Democrats, unfortunately, are going to think it is “strategic’ to not kick Trump too hard when he is down…a serious but predictable error.  But it doesn’t matter. 

The former president’s hull has been cracked and a small oil leak can be detected – one that will only grow.

I am going to be quite unscientific in predicting that today’s verdict is probably the fatal blow to Trump’s quest to return to the White House.  I am using no polls.  No data.  No evidence to support my prediction. 

n Trump has never straight up won an election. 2016 was an electoral college fluke.

n His troops lost in 2018

n He lost in 2020

n His Red Wave evaporated in 2022

Yes, Joe Biden is slow and creaky. And while inflation really has fallen to just over 3%, the high prices are not gonna go down and that this a problem for Joe. As is Netanyahu and his manic quest to level Gaza.

Trump’s problems, however, are much worse.  Recent polling shows he has wildly disproportionate support among “low information voters” who also happen to be, generally speaking, those who do not frequently turn out.  This is mostly the White Man Pickup Truck Faction.  Low information, imho, cuts two ways.  It makes you ignorant and dumb enough to vote for this grifter in the first place.  But if you are not paying attention – and they do not—they might not know jack about the trial except that Trump is now guilty of 34 felonies.  That MIGHT be enough to make some of these fellas take their foot off the MAGA accelerator a bit and they might lack the innards to elect a convicted felon.

OK OK, I admit the above scenario is a stretch but it is not impossible.  What is absolutely impossible is to not accept and understand the fact that this will definitely hurt Trump among the swing suburban voters who will decide the election.  To me, it’s not about data points but about common sense: Trump is going to lose because there just not enough Americans around willing to elect a multiple felon to the White House. Especially a convicted felon who will do nothing for the next 5 months except whine and complain to a degree that a lot of these swing voters will want him to STFU.  Do not insult my intelligence with a blanket statement that this will not seriously affect him. 

Again, with no science behind me, I am going to guess that this conviction alone –and the hot rhetoric that Trump will use about it combined with the ongoing self-degradation of the  Quisling GOP that, amazingly and stupidly, continues to stand by his side—will cost Trump 3-4% of the popular vote. It’s a small number. It’s inside the margin of error.  But it’s a probably fatal gap that will sink Trump.  The last few national elections have been decided by around 50,000 votes.  I can guarantee you Trump did not pick up any new voters today.  He lost an unknown number that will continue to grow, And he will lose again in November.

Can we maybe begin to believe this is a very quiet but very sure beginning of the end? You are free to disagree, But if u comment let’s hear a real argument and not some pot shot. ++

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