Coop Scoop Sept 1. Nine Reasons Trump Will Lose

The Nine Reasons Trump Will Lose Edition

Sept 1, 2020
Issue #32

Have some sympathy, please, for your humble author of this newsletter in these final dramatic, dizzying End Days of the Trump regime.

He writes a more or less weekly newsletter trying to make sense of the world around us and when he is ready to write he is almost always overtaken by some or another tragedy or travesty that shifts his focus.

Now that the conventions are over, and election day is but 8 or so weeks away, what should he write about – having paused for the last ten days? The conventions? Especially, the RNC where Mike Pence conjured up an imaginary competent and compassionate Donald Trump who has beaten the “Chinese Virus” with one hand while extending his other in friendship to all American blacks and newly arrived immigrants?

Or how about the dismantling of the USPS to block mail-in voting?

Maybe the best topic is the move by the DNI to terminate all in person briefings to congress about foreign interference in elections?

Then again, that might be trumped – so to speak—by learning in the last few days that the DOJ blocked Bob Mueller from investigating any financial relationship between the President and Putin?

There’s also the ongoing pandemic that is increasing in the more conservative midwestern states and is plateauing at still very lethal levels nationally reliably killing off about 35,000 a month (analysts now projecting 317,000 deaths by December 1). Mass Death is always a valid subject.

Covid-19 is also re-closing one university after another as beer swilling kids gather in bars and spread up to and beyond a thousand cases on every open campus. Or the fact that little kiddies including a one year old are now getting snuffed out after recess.

There is also that economic crisis begging for some coverage…you now the one that is keeping millions from having a job, the cutting off of federal support, the abdication of Congress that went on vacation, the 30% of mortgages now in arrears and the moratorium on evictions expiring today, the spectacle of the stock market, or the multiple billions reaped in by our High Tech overlords as a result of their pandemic profiteering? Should that be my focus?

Throw into this basket of topics the arrest of Steve Bannon, the tell-all books revealing the Mr. and Mrs. Trump and his family being moral relatives of the Manson family? That seems notable.

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I am further distracted by the payroll tax “holiday” which will result in one more catastrophe when workers find out in January they have to pay back all that suspended withholding and discover in April their expected refund might have been eaten up? A pretty meaty subject.

Then there’s the ongoing protests all across the country with hot spots across the river in Portland and out in the Wisconsin heartland, aggravated by looting and arson, out of control and overwhelmed cops who seem to have a certain fondness for armed vigilantes working with them. How about that deranged teenager who murdered two protesters with his trusty AR? Throw in the rising presence of QAnon, the violent antics of the Prayer Patriots and we have more than a newsletter, we have a couple of books worth of material here.

There is also no lack of the perennial PTSD-stricken Democratic Bedwetters who consume all of the above and then somehow conclude that the bloviating Michael Moore (the self-appointed interlocutor and interpreter of the White Working Class) is right on the money in his prediction of a miraculous Trump victory. The argument here is that what we are seeing is a merely a rerun of 2016. Oh, don’t get me started.

Or I could narrow the focus down to current polling and outcome predictions. Hmmm.

Okay, I have made my decision. I am going to write about ALL of those topics today because, in essence, they all boil down to one single issue: an up/down referendum on President Donald Trump’s failing bid for re-election. That one man, and the one fact that it his ass (and ours) on the line, ties all of the above issues into one simple equation and one conclusion: as many people as possible voting NO on November 3. Period.

Donald Trump will lose the election unless he has scared enough Democrats to not bother to vote, a doubtful notion.

This is not all like 2016 and those who think so need to bush up on their reading and perhaps double their dose of Xanax.

Let’s briefly review the differences: Trump is now the incumbent, not the challenger. Fairly or otherwise, in political terms we are now living in Trump’s America and he owns lock, stock and barrel (no pun intended) the deaths, decay, decline and disorder all around us.
Second, he has had four good years to demonstrate to Americans what a complete asshole he is so there is none of the “oh, let’s give him a chance and see what happens” notion out there that too many dumbasses bought before.
Third: Biden’s lead is greater and much more stable than Hillary Clinton’s. And while Biden might be a bore, he does not carry the ten tons of negative baggage that Clinton had around her neck four years ago.

Fourth: Among voters who dislike both parties (I raise my hand), Biden is ahead of Trump while among similar voters in 2016 Trump was the favorite. In any case, thanks to Trump, there are way fewer undecided voters this time around…and I imagine most of them dwell in caves or have been in a coma for four years.

Fifth: Trump goes into the election having definitely lost support from white women, elderly voters, and suburban voters who were all pro-Trump in 2016. Some of them might come back in the next two months out of partisan loyalty but nobody expects a stampede. He's also lost support among military voters. See chart below.