Coop Scoop #3 Bye-Bye Biden and Scratch Iowa Edition

February 4 2020
Newsletter #3
The Bye Bye Biden -- Hello Pete Edition

The Iowa Debacle

A debacle? A catastrophe? An embarrassment? A gift to Trump? Nope.
Simply, all of the above. Word is that a poo-bah in the Iowa State Democratic Party died the other day but his comrades have decided to cancel his three car funeral due to logistical challenges.

We'll get to winners and losers in a moment but first let's get out the obvious. This was a terrible night not only for Iowa but for Democrats in general. After hounding Trump over election monkey business for 3 years, the Democrats bungle an election process hardly bigger than a few big high schools. This severely undermines the image of the Democratic Party when it can least afford it. Thanks to the mooks on the former Clintin campaign who designed the App That Failed.

I am going to keep this short as much is still in flux and I want things to settle down before going too deep.

But here are the initial and sketchy conclusions I draw with 62% of Iowa precincts counted on Friday afternoon about 3:30 pm Pacific.

WINNERS: Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. "If I could be anybody today I would want to be Bernie Sanders," former Obama campaign strategist and managers David Plouffe said earlier today. "He's definitely in the best position."

Sanders clearly won the never-before-counted popular vote and might increase his 4point lead as more votes still come in from the larger metro areas.

Buttigieg was not far behind in the popular vote and it looks -- at this juncture-- that he will win a slight plurality of delegates with Sanders right on his heels.

Whatever your position, one has to recognize a spectacular finish for Mayor Pete who can make a credible claim that he won Iowa. So can Sanders. With the difference that Sanders was expected to win while Pete was more of a question mark.

Anyway you cut it, Bernie and Pete are the two big winners coming out of Iowa. They got screwed out of basking in their respective victories last nite but so it goes.

Liz Warren finished a strong third...but winning less than 1/3 of the delegates amassed by Pete and Bernie. She is far from dead. And far from being in the catbird seat. A strong finish, like first or second in NH might save her bacon but she's probably headed for the gravel pit in South Carolina.

LOSERS: Iowa. Iowa and did I say Iowa?
Also Joe Biden who is finishing a lousy 4th with about 15% of the vote. The big problem for Joe is that I see very little way he can do any better in NH. Unlikely he can overcome the trifecta of Sanders-Peter-Liz. And the last poll from South Carolina, Biden's so-called firewall, shows him on the verge of his losing his lead. Virginia, plug in the toaster! Good luck Joe in trying to raise much money in the next week.

Amy Klobuchar: Man, did the pundits LOVE her! Unfortunately very few others did. You now have my permission to stick a fork in her. She will do even worse in NH than her current 11-12% in her neighboring state of Iowa. She got a short reprieve because of the Iowa snafu, If the results had come in on time, she probably would have withdrawn by lunch today.

Yang? Fun. But dead. Do the math, Andy.

NOW WHAT?

These results definitely change the contour of the primaries. Pete is now a force to be reckoned with. And he's somebody Bernie supporters better take damn seriously. For me, Pete is an empty suit. Apparently not for millions of others. He's young, bright, articulate and he IS NOT IDENTIFIED with the decrepit Democratic Establishment (though he will fit in perfectly). That he has no original political ideas seems of little consequence. If Pete continues to ride high we can expect the homophobic assault against him to materialize and escalate very quickly. Gay marriage is not central to the "midwestern values" that he and Amy mumble about all day and night and the Trumpies will have no shame in exploiting this.

Pete's youth and "outsiderness" are attractive to people tired of the same old same old. Bernie, of course, is ten times more substantial, but he's old and there are definitely some people scared off by his call for radical change. He's also Jewish... which has not become an issue...yet.

There was also very high expectations for Sanders in Iowa and he sorta but not quite exactly hit the mark. It was certainly no cakewalk. And IMHO Sanders MUST come in first in NH --which is quite possible-- if he wants a realistic shot in South Carolina and then thru to Super Tuesday. Live Free or Die in New Hampshire, Bernie.

With Biden bleeding all over the floor there are only two candidates who can step in to fill the centrist-establishment-safe lane: Pete or Bloomberg. The results in NH might determine who it will be. A strong or first place finish by Pete could paralyze Bloomberg. A less than stellar showing by the Mayor would on the other hand kick the door wide open for the other former Mayor, the one rom New York City. Bloomberg reportedly doubled his field staff to over 2000 paid positions today and only Dod knows how many HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS in TV ads he is buying for Super Tuesday. Bloomberg definitely sees a path for a "safe" Daddy candidate like himself. With so many Democrats wetting their pants over so-called electability, I would in no way be surprised by a ig Bloomberg surge down the road a bit.

Indeed, it might be hard to elect a Jewish Socialist from New York. As it will be to elect the Jewish former Mayor of New York who is the major funder of gun control. As it will be to elect a female Harvard Law Professor who has a bit of fibbing on her record. And electing a 37yr old gay mayor from East Jesus, Indiana will also be hard. So take your electability argument and stow it in the trash, Means nothing, except you live in fear.

Bottom line: As of today (an important caveat) the over all state of play suggests that going into Super Tuesday in March -- either Sanders Vs. Buttigieg or Sanders Vs. Bloomberg. I'm a Bernie supporter and I think Bloomberg will be harder for Bernie to beat. But I much prefer Bloomberg over Buttigieg. Mike is serious, experienced, and relatively enlightened as an oligarch. Pete is inexperienced boy scout who inspires zero confidence as fit for the presidency.

P.S. You notice I did not include Warren as figuring in the final showdown phase. Not because I really exclude her, it's just that I cannot yet figure exactly how she is going to play in the coming week.

P.P.S. I address this to fellow Bernie supporters. I hope you can see that not all Democrats, arguably not even a majority of activist caucus-going Democrats have become socialists. I wish they were. But they ain't. So apart from supporting Bernie in THIS 2020 election, serious Bernie supporters have to look down the road, understand that mass consciousness does not shift radically overnight or even over 4 years, and that desiring democratic socialism for the United States is, probably at best, a generational task. Water those green shoots. Keep them growing.

See you after New Hampshire.

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